Some geologists have predicted that Canterbury has a 23% chance of another major earthquake in the next year. This is based on what computers can tell them from other earthquakes around the world but it is still impossible to predict earthquakes. Nobody really knows when an earthquake will happen.
The first thing to notice about this prediction is that it is for the whole of Canterbury not just Christchurch. The geologists say that this could happen somewhere, anywhere, in Canterbury. The chances of a major earthquake in Christchurch are more like 6%, the same as the chance of a major earthquake in many other cities like Wellington or Napier. Another way to say this is that there is a 94% chance that a major earthquake will not happen in Christchurch in the next year.
The second thing we need to remember is that New Zealand is on the Pacific Ring of Fire, just like Indonesia, Japan, and the west coast of North and South America. Earthquakes and volcanoes are common anywhere in these areas. Yet millions of people still choose to live in these areas.
We also need to remember that natural disasters happen all over the world and many of them happen suddenly. There are floods, droughts, volcanoes, bush fires from lightning, snow storms, tsunamis. We need to be prepared as much as possible.
Vocabulary
A geologist is a scientist who studies the earth.
To predict means to look into the future. The noun is prediction.
Major means very large. A major earthquake would be 6 or 7 on the Richter scale.
Questions
Do you know what to do when there is an earthquake? Children in schools are taught to drop and hold – drop to the floor under the desk and hold the legs of the desk.
How can you prepare for an earthquake? Think of food and water, communication with your family, and a meeting place. How can you manage without electricity?